From “Did it work?” to “Driving real change”: Why theory of change matters

We were in our final training session of a course focused on evaluation management when one participant, during a group presentation, asked a question that resonated across the room. He was part of a team that had been very engaged throughout the training session. The task for the participants was to develop an evaluation plan for a live project within their organization. The selected project was complex, involving various government levels, international organizations and private sector partners to help countries expand school connectivity and reduce digital gaps. His key concern was: ‘I understand the indicators… but how do I actually know if my project is contributing to our bigger objective?’    

It’s a question many of us have asked. While we often have tools to measure short-term outputs and outcomes, understanding how our work contributes to broader change is much less straightforward. 

The challenge of working in complexity 

In many United Nations (UN) contexts, change does not happen in a straight line or a predetermined timeframe. Projects operate within complex systems shaped by multiple actors, shifting contextual conditions, and interconnected webs of relationships. Yet we are often asked to demonstrate clear results, to show that our intervention led to a specific outcome or impact. 

Traditional tools, such as logframes, have been essential for structuring our work. But they tend to simplify reality, presenting change as a linear sequence of visible results: inputs lead to outputs, which lead to outcomes, and ultimately impact. 

In practice, however, change is rarely predictable or tangible. 

Different actors influence the same outcomes. External factors – from political to environmental and social – shape results in ways project teams cannot control. Feedback loops and unintended effects are common.

In this context, the question is not just ‘what did we achieve?’ but ‘how did change happen, and what was our role in it?’    

Theory of change as a different way of thinking  

This is where theory of change comes in. At its core, a theory of change is our best current understanding of how change happens. It is a set of assumptions about how, why and under what conditions an intervention contributes to the outcomes we hope to achieve. 

Rather than focusing only on what we plan to do, it helps us articulate how change is expected to unfold, and for whom. 

A theory of change makes explicit what is often implicit: 

• The pathways through which change may occur 
• The assumptions we are making at different levels 
• The contextual factors that may enable or hinder progress. 

In doing so, it encourages a more honest and transparent approach to planning, monitoring and evaluation. 

Moving from attribution to contribution 

Returning to the participant’s question: ‘How do I know if my project is contributing to the bigger objective?”, theory of change offers a powerful shift in perspective.  

In complex systems, it is often unrealistic to claim that a single intervention directly causes a specific impact. Instead, theory of change helps us understand and assess an intervention’s contribution: what role did the intervention play vis-à-vis other actors and factors. 

It provides a framework to explore: 

• How our activities are linked to broader change processes 
• What evidence supports these links 
• Which assumptions hold, and which need revisiting. 

Seeing the bigger picture through systems thinking  

Theory of change is closely connected to systems thinking. It encourages us to look beyond isolated interventions and consider the wider system in which change occurs:  

• Who are the key actors? 
• How do they interact? 
• Where are the feedback loops? 
• What external factors influence outcomes? 

This perspective helps us recognize that change is not linear. It unfolds through multiple pathways, often in unexpected ways. 

Embracing this complexity, rather than oversimplifying it, helps us design interventions that are adaptive, responsive and grounded in reality. 

Why does this matter in practice? 

Adopting a theory of change approach is not just a conceptual exercise; it has practical implications across the programme cycle. It can support:  

• Stronger programme design, by clarifying how and why activities are expected to lead to results 
• Early identification of risky assumptions, allowing teams to test and adjust them 
• Adaptive monitoring and learning, enabling continuous reflection and improvement 
• More meaningful evaluation, grounded in an explicit understanding of change processes. 

Ultimately, it helps bridge the gap between planning, implementation and evaluation. 

About building these skills in practice  

That question and discussion after the training, and many others like it, highlight a growing need. 

UN practitioners are not only looking for tools to measure results. They are looking for ways to better understand change itself. This is why at UNSSC we have launched a new course on Theory of Change for UN practitioners.  

The course is designed to support participants in: 

• Developing and articulating a theory of change 
• Applying systems thinking to real-world challenges 
• Linking programme design, monitoring and evaluation 
• Using Theory of Change as a practical tool for learning and adaptation. 

Grounded in UN contexts and experiences, it offers a hands-on approach to navigating complexity. 

Coming back to the question.... 

In the end, the answer to the participant’s question was not to have a better, smarter indicator or a better key evaluation question. It was to consider a different way of thinking. 

Because if we do not make our assumptions about change explicit, how can we test them? And if we do not understand the systems we are working in, how can we meaningfully contribute to change? 

In complex environments, clarity does not come from simplifying reality. It comes from engaging with it more thoughtfully. 

 

Are you interested in joining us for the spring edition? To learn more about the course Theory of Change for UN Practitioners: Applying Theories of Change for Design, Management, and Evaluation.